Ask HN: Vitalik says that QC might break ECC before 2028. This is crazy, right?

Quantum computers haven't even factored a three-digit number yet, right? I don't have handy the equivalent in discrete log solution, but... even if somehow (??!) they gain the 4+ orders of magnitude for Shor's space computation, there remain major unsolved boring problems like error correction and cooling, right?

Or have there been some galaxy-shaking developments in QC that actually make this somehow plausible?

Some recent, relevant, major discussions I brushed-up on before posting this:

* Willow announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42367649

* Majorana 1 announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43104071

* OpenSSH statement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44863242

* The case against Google's claims of "quantum supremacy": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384768

edit: I do want to say, I like Vitalik a lot and I think he has a beautiful and friendly brain and heart; the few times I hung with him he has been cool as heck. This is not an anti-Vitalik post. More of a "where are we really in QC" post, which I figure some people here can summarize in fairly simple terms.